|THE USE OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS IN THE STUDY OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
|HT Waaler, Anton Geser & S Andersen: Ame J Public
Health 1962, 52, 1002-13.
The paper has illustrated the use of mathematical
model (epidemetric model) for the prediction of the trend of tuberculosis
in a given situation with or without the influence of specific tuberculosis
control programme. The paper also advocates the use of models for
evolving applicable control measures by reflecting their interference
in the natural trend of tuberculosis in control areas. These models
were constructed by applying methods which have been developed and
utilised in other social sciences.
The precise estimates of the various parameters entering the model
must be available if realistic long term results are to be achieved
through model methodology. The need for exact data regarding prevalence
and incidence of infection and disease, necessitates longitudinal
surveys in large random population groups. It is, however, the present
authors firm opinion that it would be fruitful for almost any health
department, to compare their best available epidemiological knowledge
in a system of relationships in order to quantify their concept
of the situation. Such an exercise in mathematics would, in any
case, serve to sharpen the epidemiologists thinking and would lead
them to appreciate what data they need most urgently. The model
may help in predicting the trend of tuberculosis in a given situation.
|KEY WORDS: EPIDEMETRIC MODEL, SURVEY, TREND, CONTROL