EPIDEMIOLOGY <<Back
 
 
001
TUBERCULIN SENSITIVITY IN YOUNG CHILDREN (0-4 YEARS OLD) AS AN INDEX OF TUBERCULOSIS IN THE COMMUNITY.
NL Bordia, Anton Geser, J Maclary, I Mundt & Kul Bhushan: Indian J TB 1960, 8, 25-43.

The purpose of this study was to find out whether the prevalence of infection in young children might be used as an index of the tuberculosis problem in a population. Tuberculin testing was done in a random sample of 2,883 children (0-4 years) in Bangalore city, of those 2,589 (89.8%) actually completed testing. A total of 4340 children were registered in 59 villages and of these 4090 (94.2%) were tuberculin tested. The villages were from Bangalore, Kolar and Mandya as these districts were within 100 miles from Bangalore city. The team went from house to house and made a complete registration of the children 0-4 years in the selected houses. Information on socio-economic status, density of population etc., was also collected before giving tuberculin 1 TU RT 23 with Tween 80.

The results of the study showed that prevalence of infection in 0-4 years age group of cantonment area was 1.6% and in the crowded city area 4.1% at 14mm induration level. In the rural population, the prevalence of tuberculosis infection was 2%. In the city, a positive correlation between tuberculosis infection and socio-economic condition was obtained while it was not seen in rural areas. It was not possible to establish any correlation between tuberculosis disease and infection either in rural or urban areas, as the population was not examined for the prevalence of tuberculosis disease.

KEY WORDS: PREVALENCE, INFECTION, CHILDREN, RURAL, URBAN, COMMUNITY.

005
THE USE OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS IN THE STUDY OF EPIDEMIOLOGY OF TUBERCULOSIS
HT Waaler, Anton Geser & S Andersen: Ame J Public Health 1962, 52, 1002-13.

The paper has illustrated the use of mathematical model (epidemetric model) for the prediction of the trend of tuberculosis in a given situation with or without the influence of specific tuberculosis control programme. The paper also advocates the use of models for evolving applicable control measures by reflecting their interference in the natural trend of tuberculosis in control areas. These models were constructed by applying methods which have been developed and utilised in other social sciences.
The precise estimates of the various parameters entering the model must be available if realistic long term results are to be achieved through model methodology. The need for exact data regarding prevalence and incidence of infection and disease, necessitates longitudinal surveys in large random population groups. It is, however, the present authors firm opinion that it would be fruitful for almost any health department, to compare their best available epidemiological knowledge in a system of relationships in order to quantify their concept of the situation. Such an exercise in mathematics would, in any case, serve to sharpen the epidemiologists thinking and would lead them to appreciate what data they need most urgently. The model may help in predicting the trend of tuberculosis in a given situation.

KEY WORDS: EPIDEMETRIC MODEL, SURVEY, TREND, CONTROL PROGRAMME.

006
SOME ASPECTS OF A TB PREVALENCE SURVEY IN A SOUTH INDIAN DISTRICT
Raj Narain, A Geser, MV Jambunathan & M Subramanian: Bull WHO 1963, 29, 641-64 & Indian J TB 1963, 9, 85-116.

The objective was to establish the prevalence rates for tuberculosis infection, radiologically active pulmonary tuberculosis and bacteriologically confirmed diseases for different age and sex groups. Tumkur District in Mysore State consisting of 2,392 villages, 10 towns of was selected for the study. The district headquarter town Tumkur was excluded from the survey. Random sample of 62 villages and 4 town blocks having a population of 34,746 persons constituted the study population. All the individuals available in the registered population were given a Mantoux test with 1 TU RT 23 with Tween 80. Longitudinal diameter of induration was read 3-4 days after the test. At the time of tuberculin test, all persons aged 10 years and above were offered a single 70mm photofluorogram. For each picture read as abnormal, a spot specimen of sputum of the individual concerned was collected at the time of reading the tuberculin test. Age and sex distribution of infection and disease were studied.

Various parameters concerning the prevalence of infection and disease in the community were reported. Prevalence rate of infection in all ages and both sexes of the population was found to be 38.3%, radiologically active tuberculosis 1.86% and 0.41% sputum positive disease. The infection and disease increased with age; of the total diseased, half were in age group 40 years and more and about 2/3 among males.

KEY WORDS: SURVEY, PREVALENCE, INFECTION, DISEASE, CASE, COMMIUNITY, RURAL, URBAN.
 
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