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039 |
TUBERCULOSIS MORTALITY RATE IN A SOUTH INDIAN RURAL
POPULATION |
AK Chakraborty, GD Gothi, S Dwarakanath & Hardan
Singh: Indian J TB 1978, 25, 181-86. |
Information on cause specific mortality rates due
to tuberculosis in India is inadequate. In the study under report,
these have been estimated based on the data obtained from a five
year epidemiological study of 119 villages of Bangalore district
in south India. For this purpose, the estimated number of excess
deaths due to causes other than tuberculosis among patients of tuberculosis,
have been attributed to the disease.
The annual mortality due to all causes on 5 year
observation could be calculated as 893 per 1,00,000 population (9%)
aged 5 years and above. Agewise as well as overall mortality rates
were not different from survey I & II, II & III & III
& IV. The average rate of the periods is calculated to be 84
per 1,00,000 annually. The death rates were the highest in 55 years
and above age groups, lower in 5-14 years and showed an increasing
trend with age. Compared to the estimates of tuberculous deaths
in India available for 1949 (about 250/1,00,000), the present rates
were lower.
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KEY WORDS: MORTALITY, RURAL POPULATION, LONGITUDINAL
SURVEY. |
044 |
INCIDENCE OF TUBERCULOSIS CASES IN CONTACTS - A
SIMPLE MODEL |
AK Chakraborty, Hardan Singh & P Jagota: Indian
J Prev & Soc Med 1980, 11, 108-11. |
Contact examination is not recommended as a routine
procedure for Case-finding in the District Tuberculosis Programme.
The rationale for not including contact examination as a routine
Case-finding measure is: (1) prevalence rate of tuberculosis among
the contacts is not much higher than in the general population (2)
at the time of diagnosis of an index case, a second case may not
be found in the same household. Though more prevalence cases cannot
be diagnosed by contact examination, is it possible that by keeping
the household contacts, as a group, under surveillance, future incidence
of cases in the community can be substantially prevented? A model
situation has been created by using hypothesis derived from various
studies conducted in India, designed to answer the question. Variables
used in the model are: 40% of the general population are infected
at any point of time, there is only one prevalence case of TB at
any given point of time in an average household of five, 40% of
the non-infected population in a contact household are infected
per year, incidence of disease among newly infected group is seven,
times of the incidence among previously infected, incidence of disease
in general population is 0.13% and from among previously infected
persons 0.3% per year develop sputum disease.
At an incidence rate of 0.13% per year among general
population aged >5 years, it is expected that 111 cases would
arise in a year in the population of 1,00,000 under study. Thus,
of the 111 cases occurring in the community, 101 arise from those
who are not contacts.
The proportional contribution of new cases from
the contact group to the total incidence cases in the entire community
is so small, that even if all the contacts are kept under surveillance,
BCG vaccinated or placed on chemoprophylaxis, still over 90% of
incidence cases cannot be prevented from occurring. This is apart
from the fact that keeping them under surveillance will be highly
costly and is an operational problem of considerable magnitude.
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KEY WORDS: INCIDENCE, CASE, CONTACTS, MODEL |
049 |
TUBERCULOSIS IN A RURAL POPULATION OF SOUTH INDIA:
REPORT ON FIVE SURVEYS |
AK Chakraborty, Hardan Singh, K Srikantan, KR Rangaswamy,
MS Krishnamurthy & JA Steaphen: Indian J TB 1982, 29, 153-67. |
The trend of tuberculosis in a sample of 22 villages
of Bangalore district observed over a period of about 16 years (1961-77)
is reported. Distribution of tuberculin indurations did not show
a clear cut demarcation between infected and non-infected. The method
adopted to demarcate the cut off point has been described herewith:
Distribution of tuberculin induration size of 0-14 years was attempted
and extrapolated to higher age groups. Even in these younger age
groups the antimodes were not clearly defined, so the antimode was
arrived by fitting two normal curves as two likely modes.
The choice of demarcation level, therefore, is
somewhat arbitrarily made on the basis of the distributions and
these varied from survey to survey; between 10 mm at survey I and
16 mm at survey V. The actual and standardized infection rates showed
more or less declining trend in 0-4 years, 5-9 years and 10-14 years
age groups. The prevalence of cases was not significantly different
from survey to survey (varying from 3.96 to 4.92 per thousand from
first to fifth survey). However, there was a shift in the mean age
of cases, and better survival rate of cases diagnosed at later surveys.
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KEY WORDS: TREND, CASE, INFECTION, PREVALENCE,
TUBERCULIN READING METHOD, LONGITUDINAL SURVEY. |
052 |
CHANGES IN THE PREVALENCE RATES OF INFECTION IN
YOUNGER AGE GROUPS IN A RURAL POPULATION OF BANGALORE DISTRICT OVER
A PERIOD OF 5 YEARS |
AG Kurthkoti & Hardan Singh: NTI Newsletter
1985, 21, 28-40. |
The utility of repeated estimates of prevalence
rates of infection in children as a tool for surveillance in tuberculosis
is now well recognized. Two prevalence surveys at an interval of
5 years were conducted by National Tuberculosis Institute, Bangalore,
with the main objective of studying changes in prevalence rate of
infection among children in the age group of 0-9 years. A total
population of 42,343 residing in 90 randomly selected villages of
Doddaballapur taluk, Bangalore, were registered; of them, 12,535
were children in the age group of 0-9 years. Children were further
classified into two sub groups 0-4 and 5-9 years, with or without
BCG scars. The unvaccinated children in these two age groups formed
the study population.
The population in the study area during the 2nd
repeat survey was similar to that of first survey with regard to
age, sex distribution, except that a growth rate of 1.1% per year
was registered. The BCG scar rate, among children in the age group
0-4, 5-9 years, was 8% & 39% respectively at survey I. All the
unvaccinated children below 10 years were given tuberculin test
with 1 TU PPD RT 23 and reactions were read 72 to 96 hours after
tuberculin testing. In the first survey, level of demarcation to
classify the infected children was 10 mm and above, while in II
survey it was 12 mm and above. It was observed that the prevalence
rate of infection from I survey to II survey was not altered (2.58%
& 2.46%) in the 0-4 years of age, while there was an increase
in the rate from 8.93% to 12.3% in 5-9 years of age in the II survey.
The increase in the infection rate could be attributed to the rising
trend of infection, over reading by tuberculin-readers', skills
of both tuberculin tester and reader, boosting of tuberculin reaction
or scarless BCG vaccination. In conclusion, the study of changes
in the prevalence rate of infection in the younger age group is
simple, cheap, less time consuming. The data can be used for calculating
annual risk of infection as well trend of transmission of infection.
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KEY WORDS: TREND, RISK OF INFECTION, PREVALENCE,
SURVEILLANCE, RURAL COMMUNITY. |
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