|A SIMPLE MODEL FOR PLANNING AND ASSESSMENT OF PROGRAMMES
FOR TUBERCULOSIS CONTROL
|SS Nair: Indian J Public Health 1977, 21, 111-31.
BCG vaccination (prevention) and Case-finding followed
by treatment (cure) are two universally accepted methods for controlling
tuberculosis. BCG trials in selected populations have provided some
information on the protective value of BCG, generally over short
periods of time (below 20 years) and mainly among younger populations.
Efficacy of different drug regimens for treatment of tuberculosis
are well established and a number of studies on the effectiveness
of different types of treatment programmes on the patient population
are available. However, the manner in which BCG and treatment affect
the four epidemiological indices of prevalence & incidence of
infection and prevalence & incidence of disease in the community,
over a period of time, has not been reported in detail.
This paper describes a simple set of models which
can be used to predict the trend from these indices under
different types of TB programmes (including no programme) which
can be depicted as a combination of 5 programme parameters. How
these models can be used for planning and assessment of programmes
have been demonstrated by some examples. The trend in the incidence
of disease obtained from this model is similar to that reported
by Waaler et al in 1974. Unlike earlier models, the present model
starts with cases and the calculations involved are simple enough
to be handled by calculators and computer facilities are not necessary.
|KEY WORDS: MODEL, PLANNING, ASSESSMENT, CONTROL